With their 2016 season and hopes for a historic fourth consecutive flag now over, Hawthorn will turn its attention to the upcoming draft and how they will go about securing Jaeger O’Meara, Tom Mitchell and Tyrone Vickery.
For a club that finished the home and away season in third position to be able to orchestrate deals for all three seems an almost impossible task. However, as we have come to discover over the years, if the Hawks seriously go after a particular player, that player inevitably turns out in the brown and gold the following season.
O’Meara is the pick of the three and will cost Hawthorn at least a high first round draft selection, or a lower pick and a player. Mitchell is worth a little less, but will still also command a first round selection, while Vickery is a restricted free agent, so either the Tigers will not match the Hawks offer and he moves for free, or they do and Hawthorn will have to offer a pick somewhere around a mid to late second round, or early third.
Heading into this years’ trade period, the Hawks are armed with picks 14, 32, 50, 68, 86 and 104. A total of 2077 points.
With O’Meara valued at 1868 points (6-10), Mitchell 1192 (17-23), and Vickery 674 (30-35), should Richmond match Hawthorn’s offer, they do not have the necessary selections and also fall well short of the 3737 points in total required to bring in all three.
Quite simply, to get all three to Waverly next season the Hawks will have to give up a 2017 selection and a number of players.
Which Hawks are trade options?
Brad Hill appears set to join his older brother Stephen at Fremantle. With a trade value of 779 points, Hill is worth a mid to late second round pick (30-35). However, as the Dockers have already traded their 2016 second round selection to the Gold Coast, their next available pick is 39, which given the circumstances will more than likely be enough to get the deal done.
So who else will the Hawks give up? With Ty Vickery coming in, James Sicily’s position appears the most vulnerable. Like many of his teammates, the 22-year old has struggled to cement a permanent place in a powerful Hawthorn outfit, but has shown plenty of promise when given an opportunity.
Sicily could be an attractive option for the Suns. After losing Charlie Dixon last year there is an opening there, and a forward line of Tom Lynch, Peter Wright and James Sicily would be a strong one for the Gold Coast for many seasons to come. Valued at 727 points, on the open market Sicily would attract a mid-second round selection (26-30).
Despite denials from his manager that he is a trade option for the Hawks, rumours persist that Luke Breust has been told by the club that it is a possibility. Originally from NSW, Breust would certainly spark Sydney’s interest, but just how much remains to be seen.
At 25 years of age Breust has plenty of football left in him, and has just come off arguably his most successful season to date from an individual perspective, producing a career high disposal average of 15.7, while posting stats in other areas comparable to his best. Breust would attract a mid to high second-round selection somewhere between pick 22 and 27.
*After review, Luke Breust’s value has been adjusted, due to an initial oversight in our valuation formula for the Hawk forward. His revised value is a mid to low first round pick 12-17.
Billy Hartung is another Hawk that has not been able to cement a permanent position in the Hawks senior outfit, and would no doubt attract interest from opposition clubs. However, if Hill departs the Hawks would be loath to trade out someone of Hartung’s pace.
Will Langford could be offered up. Following a stellar 2014 finals series Langford has not come on as the Hawks would have liked. Injuries have played a part, but even when healthy he has been overlooked, and if Mitchell comes in Hawthorn are well-stocked for inside midfielders.
Langford’s value on the open market has fallen dramatically since the end of 2014. Currently valued at 534 points, he would attract a late second to early third round selection.
Paul Puopolo’s name has also come up as a trading option, although admittedly not as much as those already mentioned. Turning 29 at the end of this year and valued at 957 points, ‘Poppy’ would still attract an early to mid second round selection.
How the Hawks can get it done
Firstly, Hawthorn will be hoping Richmond do not match their offer for Vickery. However, it would be a major surprise if the Tigers did go down this road, as it would be the first time a club has elected to do so since free agency was introduced at the end of the 2012 season.
Presuming Brad Hill goes to the Dockers for pick 39, Hawthorn will have now have picks 14, 32, 39, 50, 68, 86 and 104, as well as Tyronne Vickery.
Gold Coast have indicated they will demand substantial compensation from the Hawks for O’Meara, and are in a strong position to do so. However, they will not get the exhortative amount for him that has been suggested.
Pick 14 and James Sicily could get the job done. In a package, pick 14 and Sicily would be valued at 1888 points – just above O’Meara’s value of 1868.
Gold Coast then go into the trade period and draft with another young and promising tall forward on their books, and armed with picks 4, 8, 14, 21, 22, 24, 39, 40, 58, 76 and 94.
This would leave Hawthorn with two trading options for Tom Mitchell. The first would be trading out Luke Breust and pick 32. With Mitchell valued at a late first round pick, an early second rounder and a player of Breust’s calibre would be a fair outcome for both parties.
Hawthorn get their man, and the Swans get a quality medium forward and 584 valuable draft points to use on their academy players.
The other option would be for Bruest to stay, and the Hawks offering pick 32 this year and their 2017 first round selection. Which with O’Meara, Mitchell and Vickery added to an already formidable outfit would however more than likely be lower than the 14th selection they earned this year.
While with any trade between clubs there are a myriad of options, not least of all the inclusion of a third party, those presented here appear the likeliest options at the present time.
But what is almost a certainty, is that come the end of the trade period all three players will be at the Hawthorn Football Club, and with them on board the Hawks will once again be premiership contenders in 2017.